Windows 8 pt2 - second guessing the future

As developers and publishers we have to make regular bets on where different platforms and devices are going to be in the next year or two. I don't look further out than that, as I mostly think things are too volatile, and if I can't turn our little ship around in that time frame, I'm not doing my job.

So I was interested to see some new Forrester research into predicted market shares in 2016.

For Windows 8, Microsoft are talking a lot about a unified experience across tablet, desktop and phone. With the phone piece, I think they have a way to go, but I can see the tablet/desktop differentiation blurring.

For the Win8 app we just built, we made a bet. We'd rather be a big fish in a small pond that's growing fast than a small fish in an enormous pond. This used to be called first mover advantage. Our app will be published in the Windows Store in the Books and Reference category. I expect around 250 apps to be there on Friday, so we should get some attention. Discoverability won't be a problem, even if overall numbers might be. Contrast that with the Apple App Store, where there are currently 28,255 book apps. We'd be buried.

Now the bet wouldn't make any sense if the Windows Store doesn't grow, but we know that Microsoft will sell 350m Win8 licenses a year if they track the progress of Win7. If you combine that, with the increased relevance in the tablet sector that Forrester highlight, and mix in people's habituation with buying from online stores and I think it will grow.

Which isn't to say we aren't building an iOS app as well, of course...